Background

A clinical-stage biotech company with a diversified R&D portfolio sought to rebalance its development strategy after multiple delays and growing investor pressure. While several programs showed promising early results, the client lacked a structured framework to compare risk levels, align timelines, and prioritize assets based on both scientific potential and business impact. They turned to Larka to design a risk-adjusted approach to portfolio management, guiding capital allocation and maximizing long-term value creation.

Our approach

Within an 8 weeks timeframe, we conducted a comprehensive audit of the pipeline across discovery, preclinical, and clinical stages, mapping each program against a standardized risk matrix. Key factors included probability of technical and regulatory success, indication-specific development complexity, competitive intensity, capital requirements, and development timelines. This provided a clear, comparable view of each asset’s risk profile and contribution to overall portfolio value.

In parallel, we performed a commercial opportunity assessment, integrating market size, competitor pipelines, and payer receptivity to estimate the risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) of each program. Using these insights, we built allocation models to simulate portfolio performance under different strategies — from conservative to aggressive — highlighting trade-offs in risk, capital efficiency, and time-to-value.

To drive alignment, we facilitated decision-making workshops with leadership, anchoring recommendations in the company’s vision, risk appetite, and stakeholder expectations. Finally, we equipped the client with governance tools to enable dynamic portfolio reviews and ensure ongoing discipline in capital allocation.

Outcome

The client redirected investment toward two mid-stage assets with strong risk-reward profiles, paused one high-risk program, and explored co-development options for another. This rebalancing clarified portfolio priorities, reduced capital inefficiencies, and strengthened investor confidence by demonstrating a disciplined strategy.